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原著作者介绍及撰写此文时的背景Author’s tntroduction and background of writing this paper本文主要参考Goran Djukanovic先生所著的Price direction uncertain short-term,but rise expected in long run(Aluminium price outlook:2008 to 2012)而译。Goran Djukanovic先生是黑山共和国(Montenegro)、KAP(Kombinat Aluminijuma podgorica)机构的首席分析师。本文写于2007年11月初,当时的市场特征是:美元汇率下跌到新低,石油、黄金和海运价格上涨到新高,而基本金属价格涨跌不一。上述现象主要源于三个原因:伊朗和伊拉克的形势日益紧张,中国金属的消费量和产量大幅增长,美国经济增速放慢的初步征兆明显,这些因素导致投资者把更多储备的资金转向投资基本金属。然而随着铜价的下跌和铝价的坚挺,一些贸易商评述,投资者似乎正开始将资金转向投资轻金属。
This article mainly refers to the price direction uncertain short-term, but rise expected in long run (Aluminum price outlook: 2008 to 2012) by Goran Djukanovic, while the author of this article introduced and wrote this article. Translate Mr. Goran Djukanovic is the Principal Analyst at KAP (Kombinat Aluminijuma podgorica) in Montenegro. This article was written in early November 2007 when market characteristics were as follows: the exchange rate of the United States dollar dropped to new lows, the prices of oil, gold and shipping rose to new highs, while the prices of base metals varied. This is mainly due to three reasons: the increasingly tense situation in Iran and Iraq, the substantial increase in the consumption and output of Chinese metal, and the obvious initial signs of a slowdown in U.S. economic growth that have led investors to divert more reserves to Investment in base metals. However, with the fall in copper prices and the strong aluminum prices, some traders commented that investors seem to be starting to shift their funds towards investing in light metals.