论文部分内容阅读
小编语:近日,中金公司首席经济学家梁红表示,预期宏观货币政策将会回归总量调控。随着宏观政策逆周期操作的正常化回归,我们预计明年GDP增长为7.3%,但随着改革红利的逐步释放,2016年中国经济有望见底,增速将回升至7.5%。展望人民币的汇率,梁红预测明年经常项目顺差占GDP比例将上升,带来人民币汇率升值压力。虽然明年中美两国利差缩小可能带来人民币贬值
Xiaobian language: Recently, CICC’s chief economist Liang Hong said the expected macro-monetary policy will return to the total regulation and control. With the normalization of counter-cyclical macroeconomic return, we expect GDP growth to be 7.3% next year. However, with the gradual release of the reform dividend, China’s economy will finally bottom in 2016, and the growth rate will rise to 7.5%. Looking forward to the exchange rate of RMB, Liang Hong predicts that the current account surplus will rise next year as a proportion of GDP, bringing the pressure of RMB exchange rate appreciation. Although the spread between China and the United States will narrow next year, the renminbi may devalue