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历史经验表明,汇率改革往往会导致实物资产尤其是房地产价格的大幅上扬。我国自汇率改革以来,除了短暂的价格回落以外,房地产价格上涨迅速,并达到了历史高点。此外,政策因素也在一定程度上影响了房地产价格走势,我国房地产市场的“政策市”特征尤为明显。实证分析结果显示,我国房地产价格和汇率波动、政策因素之间存在较为密切的联系,汇率升值预期的存在对房地产价格起到了推动作用,基于保持房地产价格稳定的目的,人民币汇率制度改革和相关政策的出台必须尤应谨慎。
Historical experience shows that the exchange rate reform often leads to a substantial rise in physical assets, especially real estate prices. Since the reform of the exchange rate in our country, in addition to a brief price drop, real estate prices have risen rapidly and reached historic highs. In addition, the policy factors also affect the real estate price trend to a certain extent. The “policy market” characteristic of China’s real estate market is particularly obvious. The empirical analysis shows that there is a close relationship between the real estate prices and exchange rate fluctuations and the policy factors in our country. The existence of exchange rate appreciation has played a catalytic role in real estate prices. Based on the purpose of maintaining the real estate price stability, the RMB exchange rate system reform and related policies The promulgation must be especially cautious.