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香港上半年经济预期增长为负1.2%,下半年将回复至3.1%的正增长,全年经济增长为1%。相信今年年中本地失业率会达至6.4%的顶点,然后将逐步回落,而今年的通缩率为1%。香港去年实质经济增长为0.1%,随着美国经济复苏,香港经济亦可望好转。近日美国经济数据理想,故本月美国再减息的机会较微,但由于美国的消费需求仍然疲弱,所以3月仍有减息机会,预计减幅应为0.25厘。美国经济的复苏步伐只属平稳,美息下半年或将掉头回升,但不会于短期间连番加息,所以今年息口仍处于较低水平。美国年内只有三成机会出现V形的经济反弹。近日日元进一步下挫,日元贬值对香港及亚
Hong Kong’s economy is expected to see a negative growth of 1.2% in the first half of this year and a positive growth of 3.1% in the second half of the year with an annual economic growth of 1%. I believe the local jobless rate will reach a peak of 6.4% by mid-year and then gradually decline. This year, the deflation rate will be 1%. Last year, the real economic growth in Hong Kong was 0.1%. As the U.S. economy recovers, the economy of Hong Kong is also expected to improve. With the recent U.S. economic data favorable, the chances of a further U.S. interest rate cut this month are slim. However, as the consumer demand in the United States remains weak, we still have the opportunity to cut interest rates in March. We expect the reduction should be 0.25%. The pace of economic recovery in the United States is only steady. If the United States is better off, it may turn around again in the second half of the year, but it will not raise interest rates in the short term. Therefore, the interest rate this year will remain at a relatively low level. In the United States, only 30% chance of a V-shaped economic rebound occurred during the year. Recently the yen fell further, the yen devaluation of Hong Kong and Asia