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对预警信息的科学调控能够有效提升危机预警工作质量。本文以人口安全预警系统为例,建构了预警系统参与要素协作模型和预警临界值选择模型。在此基础上,从信息要素与信息流角度分析了预警系统的整体构成、要素协作机制与信号表达机制,并进而反思了危机预警中的政府信息管理角色和信息调控模式,提出了提升预警预测精度和时间效率的途径与方法。
The scientific regulation of early warning information can effectively improve the quality of early warning of crisis. Taking the early warning system of population safety as an example, this paper constructs the cooperation model of early warning system and the selection model of early warning threshold. On this basis, from the perspective of information elements and information flow, the author analyzes the overall composition of the early warning system, the mechanism of elemental collaboration and the signaling mechanism, and then reflects on the roles of government information management and information regulation and control in crisis early warning. Ways and Methods of Accuracy and Time Efficiency.