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大灰厂的三种形变资料的年变化显然与雨量及温度变化有关,后者在某种程度上干扰了曲线变化中的有效信息.唐山地震前1975年开始的明显变化是上述干扰因素所不能解释的.由于雨量和温度干扰因素的存在,确定异常的幅度及其起始时间是有困难的.我们用多道维纳(Wiener)预测滤波方法由输入(雨量、温度)来预测输出(短水准、连通管及伸缩仪资料).预测输出和实际资料之间的差别(预测偏差)即为我们所求的有效信息.大灰厂短水准异常变化开始于1975年4月,即开始于唐山地震前一年多.震前三个月左右观测到明显的短期异常.总异常幅度约为2毫米左右(短水准基线为26米).异常表明,唐山地震前八宝山断层活动特征具有逆冲性.
The annual variation of the three deformation data of the large ash plant is obviously related to the change of rainfall and temperature, which to some extent interfered with the effective information of the curve change.The obvious change that began in 1975 before the Tangshan earthquake was that these disturbing factors could not Due to the presence of rain and temperature disturbances, it is difficult to determine the magnitude of the anomaly and its onset time.We used the multi-channel Wiener prediction filter method to predict the output from the inputs (rainfall, temperature) Level, connecting pipe and telescopic instrument data.) Predict the difference between the output and the actual data (forecast deviation) is the valid information we ask for. Large gray factory abnormal short-level abnormal changes began in April 1975, that is, started in Tangshan More than a year before the earthquake, significant short-term anomalies were observed about three months before the earthquake, with a total anomaly of about 2 millimeters (short baseline level of 26 meters). Anomalies indicate that the activity characteristics of the Babaoshan fault before the Tangshan earthquake were thrust .