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研究农户粮食生产补贴政策认知与种粮行为变动影响有助于政府明确政策实施效果,调整政策措施,缓解粮食生产供给侧结构改革压力。以黑龙江省为例,在调查农户对粮食生产补贴政策的认知与规模变动反应基础上,采用有序多分类Logistic模型对粮农种粮规模变化进行分析,探讨影响农户种粮行为变动的因素。结果表明,农户对粮食补贴政策的认知度和满意度都很高,达80%以上。农户粮食生产收入增加会促使其扩大粮食种植面积;农户认知的粮食补贴对其粮食生产越起作用,农户越倾向于多种粮;农业生产资料投入量越多且价格越合理,农户扩大种粮的积极性越高。农户在当地找非农工作越难,越倾向于扩大种粮面积;农户家庭从事农业劳动的人数和承包耕地面积的多少对其种粮规模变动不显著。研究表明,粮食直接补贴政策的实施提高了农户种粮积极性,随着种植规模的扩大,粮食补贴起到一定的补偿作用。因此,未来主产区粮食生产补贴政策调整中,政府需要构建粮食价格与补贴的融合机制,要分层次分类别对农户进行重点补贴,要加大对农户生产投入产出的补贴。
Studying the influence of peasants’ food production subsidy policy cognition and the change of grain-purchasing behavior helps the government to clarify the effect of policy implementation, adjust the policy measures and ease the pressure on the supply-side structural reform of grain production. Taking Heilongjiang Province as an example, on the basis of investigating the response of peasants to the cognitive and scale changes of grain production subsidy policy, the paper analyzed the changes of grain size of grain-growing farmers by using an orderly and multi-classification Logistic model and discussed the factors influencing farmers’ grain-growing behavior. The results showed that farmers’ awareness and satisfaction with grain subsidy policies were both high, reaching more than 80%. The increase of farmers’ income from food production will encourage them to expand their grain acreage. The grain subsidies recognized by peasant households will play a more important role in their grain production, and peasant households will be more likely to have more grain. The more inputs of agricultural means of production and the more reasonable prices, The more active the food is. The harder farmers are to find non-farm work in their area, the more inclined they are to expand their grain-growing area. The number of rural households engaged in agricultural work and the amount of contracted cultivated land have not significantly changed their grain-growing scale. The research shows that the implementation of the direct grain subsidy policy has increased farmers’ enthusiasm for planting grain. As the planting scale expands, the grain subsidy plays a compensatory role. Therefore, in the future adjustment of grain production subsidy policy in the main producing areas, the government needs to construct a fusion mechanism of grain prices and subsidies, and should give priority subsidies to farmers according to different levels so as to increase subsidies for input and output of farmers’ production.