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在我国银行信贷是主要的融资渠道,银行信贷量的变动牵引着经济变量的变动。本文考察了银行信贷对物价的影响,使用我国1991年1月～2009年12月月度数据,用最小二乘法、协整检验的计量经济学方法,就我国的信贷增速对居民消费物价指数的影响进行了实证分析。实证结果表明,信贷增速对CPI变动产生了正的影响,该影响存在着5～7个月的滞后。我国货币政策可以以信贷增速为参照指标,通过制定相应的政策来影响物价的走势,达到稳定物价的目的。
Bank credit in our country is the main financing channel, and the change of bank credit draws the changes of economic variables. This paper examines the impact of bank credit on prices. Using the monthly data from January 1991 to December 2009 in our country, using econometrics method of least squares and cointegration test, this paper analyzes the impact of credit growth on the consumer price index The impact of an empirical analysis. Empirical results show that the credit growth has a positive impact on the CPI changes, the impact of the existence of 5 to 7 months lag. China’s monetary policy can refer to the credit growth rate as a reference index, through the formulation of appropriate policies to affect the trend of prices, to achieve the purpose of stabilizing prices.