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对新兴市场投资者来说,2015年在多个方面都充满考验。不过,我们认为多项造成近期市况波动的因素是暂时的,基于几项因素,长线而言我们对新兴市场持乐观态度。第一,新兴经济体的经济成长趋势普遍比发达市场稳健。这是一项持续长线主题,我们预期会延续至2016年和以后。即使巴西及俄罗斯等主要经济体陷于衰退,据国际货币基金组织估计,新兴市场于2016年的成长预计仍可达4.5%,比发达市场的预计成长率2.2%高出一倍。第二,大多数新兴经济体的基本因素于过去十年间有显著改善。
For emerging market investors, 2015 is full of challenges in many areas. However, we think a number of factors contributing to the recent market conditions are temporary and based on several factors, we are optimistic about emerging markets in the long run. First, the economic growth trends in emerging economies are generally more robust than in developed markets. This is a continuing long-term theme which we expect to continue into 2016 and beyond. Even though major economies such as Brazil and Russia are in a recession, IMF estimates that emerging markets are still expected to see growth of 4.5% in 2016, more than double the projected growth of 2.2% in developed markets. Second, the fundamentals of most emerging economies have improved significantly over the past decade.