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本文以华北山前平原冬小麦主要产区代表栾城试验站为例，根据试验资料确定出冬小麦各生育阶段对缺水反应的影响指数，以此得出阶段耗水量与产量关系的数学模型，并通过冬小麦气候生长潜力估算法和实际资料对比模型进行了验证。最后用此模型估算了华北山前平原优质水不足条件的冬小麦产量，并对灌溉制度的优化进行了分析。
In this paper, taking Luancheng experimental station, which represents the main winter wheat producing area in North China, as an example, the influence index of water deficit response in each growth stage of winter wheat was determined based on the experimental data, and the mathematical model of the relationship between water consumption and yield was derived. Through the winter wheat growth potential estimation method and the actual data comparison model was verified. Finally, the model was used to estimate the yield of winter wheat in the condition of high quality water shortage in the piedmont plain in North China. The optimization of irrigation schedule was also analyzed.