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对上海市市区450名7～13岁儿童进行长达9年的骨龄和身高的追踪研究,应用李果珍“骨龄百分计数法”确定骨龄,通过逐步回归分析,选择了合适的指标,然后以18岁时的身高作为成年身高,引进实际年龄、骨龄、当时身高、体重及父、母的身高,进行多元线性回归分析,建立了10～14岁儿童的成年身高预测表。根据预测表进行回代验证,结果预测值与实际值差值在3厘米以内的男性占83.0％,女性占81.2％。
A total of 450 children from 7 to 13 years old in Shanghai were investigated for their bone age and height for 9 years. The bone age was determined by Li Guozhen’s “bone age percentage counting method”. By stepwise regression analysis, the appropriate index was selected, 18 years old height as adult height, the introduction of the actual age, bone age, then height, weight and father and mother height, multiple linear regression analysis established the adult height forecast table for children aged 10 to 14 years. According to the predictive table, the verification was carried out. As a result, 83.0% of the men with the difference between the predicted value and the actual value within 3 cm, and 81.2% of the women.