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本文运用门限协整检验来研究我国生猪养殖规模化前阶段(1994-2006年)和规模化后阶段(2007至今)的生猪价格与玉米价格的动态传导关系,发现生猪价格与玉米价格存在长期均衡(协整)关系。在规模化前阶段,生猪价格与玉米价格的传导关系是非对称的,而在规模化后阶段的传导是对称的。所以,应保持玉米价格的相对稳定,进一步推动生猪规模化养殖,完善农产品价格信息发布平台,加快生猪期货上市。
In this paper, we use the threshold cointegration test to study the dynamic transmission relationship between hog prices and corn prices in the pre-scale (1994-2006) and post-scale (2007-present) stages of hog farming, and find that there is a long-term equilibrium between hog prices and corn prices (Co-integration) relationship. In the pre-scaled phase, the conduction relationship between hog prices and corn prices is asymmetric, whereas the conduction is symmetrical after the scaled-up stage. Therefore, the relative price stability of maize should be maintained to further promote the large-scale breeding of pigs, improve the pricing information platform for agricultural products and speed up the listing of pig futures.