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经济科学对长期波动(康德拉季耶夫经济行情大周期或长波)理论的兴趣一再高涨,绝不是偶然的。这种高涨第一次出现在30年代末的大萧条以后,由于熊彼特的发展了康德拉季耶夫思想的著作的出版。70年代末—80年代初对长波理论兴趣的再次高涨,首先是由于从70年代中期起发达国家经历了深刻的结构危机。许多研究人员认为,这次危机令人惊奇地证实了根据康德拉季耶夫半个世纪一个周期的理论所作的预测。危机标志着第四个康德拉季耶夫波最
It is by no means accidental that the economic sciences have repeatedly raised interest in the theory of long-term fluctuations (Kondratiefv’s long-term or long-wave economic conditions). This rise first appeared in the late 1930s after the Great Depression, due to the development of Schumpeter’s Kondratiev ideas. The renewed interest in long wave theory in the late 1970s and early 1980s was primarily due to the profound structural crisis that developed countries have experienced since the mid-1970s. Many researchers believe that this crisis surprisingly confirms the prediction made on the basis of a half-century cycle of Kondratiev. The crisis marked the fourth Kondratiev wave most