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铀资源是军民两用的重要战略资源,有必要研究其价格变化为政府决策提供依据.采用基于Schwarz信息准则的统计变点检测方法,识别出1990-2013年国际天然铀价格的多个均值-方差变点,据此将国际天然铀价格的变化分为稳中下降期、大幅上扬期、震荡回归期和持续下降期四个阶段.研究结果表明,核事故、二次铀源、核电政策是影响国际天然铀价格的重要因素,同时天然铀逐渐显示出其商品的属性,其价格受供需关系的影响明显.
Uranium resource is an important strategic resource both for military and civilian, so it is necessary to study its price change to provide the basis for government decision-making.Using the statistical change-point detection method based on Schwarz information criterion to identify multiple mean international natural uranium prices from 1990 to 2013 - Variance change point, the international natural uranium price changes will be divided into steady decline period, a substantial rise period, turbulence regression period and continued decline of the four stages.The results show that the nuclear accident, uranium source, nuclear power policy is At the same time, natural uranium gradually shows the attributes of its commodities, and its price is obviously affected by the supply-demand relationship.