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目的预测昭通市麻疹的发病趋势,为制定防治措施提供参考依据。方法应用SPSS 17.0软件对2005年1月至2013年3月麻疹发病率进行ARIMA模型建模拟合,用所得到的模型对2013年各月发病率进行预测,并与实际发病率进行比较。结果采用ARIMA(1,2,1)(0,1,0)12预测昭通市麻疹的发病趋势,2013年发病率为12.26/10万。结论 ARIMA模型能很好地模拟麻疹发病率在时间序列上的变动趋势,并对未来的发病率进行预测。
Objective To predict the incidence of measles in Zhaotong and provide a reference for the formulation of prevention and control measures. Methods The incidence of measles in January 2005 to March 2013 was simulated by ARIMA model using SPSS 17.0 software. The incidence rate of each month in 2013 was predicted by the obtained model, and compared with the actual incidence. Results ARIMA (1,2,1) (0,1,0) 12 was used to predict the incidence of measles in Zhaotong City. The incidence of measles in 2013 was 12.26 / 100000. Conclusion The ARIMA model can well simulate the time-series trend of measles morbidity and predict the future morbidity.