苏联综合国力评价——对苏联军事力量、经济力量和科技力量的分析

• 作 者: 杜长庚
• 机 构: 日本国际问题研究所,
• 出 处: 现代外国哲学社会科学文摘
• 发表日期: 1983年07期
• 关键词: 军事力量 有限核战争 洲际导弹 命中率 核力量 综合国力 八十年代 战略核武器 经济计量模型 计量模型分析

一、军事力量的加强 1、十几年来苏联不断加强军事力量,不仅在数量上,而且在质量上迅速赶上了曾经占绝对优势的美国核力量。由于苏联洲际导弹命中率的显著提高,才有可能运用其巨大的弹头威力和先发制人的手段,来摧毁美国大部分的洲际导弹。这样,从理论上讲,苏联就有可能选择多种的战略。例如,苏联设想把有限核战争作为目的,只摧毁美国的洲际导弹而对城市不进行核攻击时,

I. Strengthening of the Military Forces 1. Over the past decade or so, the Soviet Union has continuously strengthened its military forces, catching up with the U.S. nuclear force that once occupied an absolute superiority not only in quantity but also in quality. Because of the remarkable increase in the intercontinental missile hits in the Soviet Union, it is possible to use most of its warhead power and preemptive tactics to destroy most of the intercontinental missiles in the United States. Thus, in theory, the Soviet Union may choose a variety of strategies. For example, when the Soviet Union envisaged a limited nuclear war as the sole purpose of destroying only the United States intercontinental missile and not conducting a nuclear attack on the city,