黄河干流水库联合调度径流预报模型研究

• 作 者: 黄强 王瑞骏 沈晋
• 机 构: 西安理工大学
• 出 处: 西北水资源与水工程
• 发表日期: 1995年03期
• 关键词: 黄河干流 径流预报 联合调度 线性水文系统 实时校正 时间序列 调度规则 自回归滑动平均 径流形成 线性响应

在简述线性水文系统中总径流线性响应模型ＴＬＲ与线性扰动模型ＬＰＭ以及时间序列的自回归ＡＲ模型、滑动平均ＭＡ模型和自回归滑动平均ＡＲＭＡ模型基础上，结合黄河干流水库联合调度研究阐明了黄河干流径流预报的构想及组合模型、并讨论了径流预报模型实时校正方法，同时分析了各模型的特点及其对水库优化调度的影响，这对黄河干流水库联合调度研究以及水库优化调度在实际中的应用具有重要意义．

Based on the brief introduction to TLR and LPM of linear-runoff hydrodynamics system, the autoregressive AR model, the moving average MA model and the autoregressive moving average ARMA model, combined with the research on the joint scheduling of Yellow River mainstream reservoirs, The conception and combination model of runoff forecasting of Yellow River mainstream are discussed. The real-time correction method of runoff forecasting model is discussed. Meanwhile, the characteristics of each model and its influence on the optimal dispatching of reservoirs are analyzed. The research on the joint dispatching of Yellow River mainstream reservoirs and the optimization of reservoir dispatching in practice In the application of great significance.