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给出了对一给定地区滑坡灾害进行评价的可靠的统计模型。该模型是在信息论和回归分析的基础上建立的。信息论是概率论的一个分支,根据该理论,最具意义的特征因素是不可预见的;而回归分析则是基于简单的统计理论。两种统计预测方法均应用于斜坡的不稳定性分析,并对两种结果进行了对比。另外,编制了应用于滑坡灾害评价的Fortran77程序,该程序考虑了影响斜坡不稳定性的各种因素,以及研究区历史上曾经发生滑坡的情况,同时该程序也可以计算研究区的信息值和回归值,并根据不稳定性等级对研究区进行分区。文中给出了奥克南达山谷一个66km2地区的滑坡灾害评价实的。分析中所考虑的影响因素为坡角、坡高、岩石类型以及地质构造等。根据上述两种方法得出的分析结果,分别绘制成滑坡灾害分区图,并进行比较。
A reliable statistical model for evaluating landslide hazards in a given area is given. The model is based on information theory and regression analysis. Information theory is a branch of probability theory, according to which the most significant characteristic factor is unpredictable; and regression analysis is based on simple statistical theory. Both statistical prediction methods are applied to slope instability analysis, and the two results are compared. In addition, a Fortran77 program has been developed for landslide hazard assessment that takes into account various factors that affect slope instability and landslides that have occurred in the history of the study area. The program also calculates information values for the study area and Regression values and partitioning of the study area based on the level of instability. The article gives a real evaluation of the landslide hazard in a 66km2 area in the Oakacon valley. The influencing factors considered in the analysis are slope angle, slope height, rock type and geological structure. Based on the analysis results obtained by the above two methods, landslide hazard zoning maps are respectively drawn and compared.