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前视时间阈值设定是设计地形感知告警系统(TAWS)的重要问题。提出一种基于概率统计原理的前视告警时间阈值设置方法并进行仿真实验。首先,通过分析TAWS前视地形告警的实现原理,总结影响前视告警时间阈值设定的三种不确定因素。利用概率统计思想,将事故率、告警率、告警成功率三个性能指标用于TAWS的前视告警性能评估。最后,建立轨迹模型,采用蒙特卡洛法得到性能最优的TAWS前视警戒和警告两阶段的告警时间阈值。仿真结果表明最优前视告警阈值与工程实际上的前视告警时间阈值一致。
Foreground time threshold setting is an important issue in the design of Terrain Awareness Warning System (TAWS). This paper presents a method of setting the threshold of the foreground alarm threshold based on the principle of probability and statistics and simulating experiments. First of all, by analyzing the realization principle of TAWS frontal topographic alarm, the paper summarizes three kinds of uncertain factors that affect the threshold setting of frontal alarm time. Utilize the idea of probability and statistics, use the three performance indexes of accident rate, alarm rate and alarm success rate for the front-end alarm performance evaluation of TAWS. Finally, the trajectory model is established, and the optimal performance of TAWS warning and warning two-phase alarm threshold is obtained by Monte-Carlo method. The simulation results show that the optimal foreground alarm threshold is consistent with the actual foreground alarm threshold.