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民间资本的不断介入催生资源型城市房地产市场的不断发展壮大,近年来,资源型城市房地产市场出现房价收入比过高、空置率较大,市场风险严重。为探寻民间借贷与房地产市场风险的之间存在怎样的关联效应,以鄂尔多斯为例,通过θ值法间接对鄂尔多斯民间借贷规模进行测算,并构建房地产市场发展水平指标体系,测算房地产水平。在此基础上,运用协整检验表明民间借贷与房地产市场发展之间存在着长期的均衡关系,最后利用脉冲响应刻画出民间借贷与房地产市场相互影响的动态发展轨迹。
The continuous involvement of private capital has led to the continuous development and growth of the real estate market in resource-based cities. In recent years, the real estate market in resource-based cities has suffered from excessively high price-to-income ratio, large vacancy rate and serious market risk. In order to explore the relationship between private lending and real estate market risk, take Erdos as an example, we indirectly estimate the scale of private lending in Ordos by the θ value method, construct the index system of real estate market development and measure the real estate level. On this basis, the co-integration test shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between private lending and the real estate market development. Finally, the impulse response is used to characterize the dynamic development path of the interaction between private lending and the real estate market.