论文部分内容阅读
目的探讨气象因素变化对细菌性痢疾(菌痢)发病的影响,初步建立菌痢的早期预测模型。方法选用季节性求和自回归移动平均模型分析东城区菌痢发病与气象因素的关系。结果东城区菌痢发病与平均气温、平均相对湿度、平均气压、降水量、日照时数、平均风速等均有显著相关,在SARIMA(1,0,1)×(0,0,1)12早期预测模型中平均气温、平均相对湿度、降水量等与菌痢发病有关。结论气温、相对湿度、降水量等气象因素与东城区菌痢发病相关,可以将其作为预测东城区菌痢发病的指标。
Objective To explore the influence of the change of meteorological factors on the incidence of bacillary dysentery and establish an early prediction model of bacillary dysentery. Methods The seasonal autoregressive moving average model was used to analyze the relationship between dysentery incidence and meteorological factors in Dongcheng District. Results The incidence of dysentery in Dongcheng District was significantly correlated with average temperature, average relative humidity, mean barometric pressure, precipitation, sunshine hours and mean wind speed. In SARIMA (1,0,1) × (0,0,1) 12 Early prediction model in the average temperature, the average relative humidity, precipitation and dysentery incidence. Conclusion The meteorological factors such as temperature, relative humidity and precipitation are related to the incidence of dysentery in Dongcheng District, which can be used as an index to predict the incidence of dysentery in Dongcheng District.