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[目的]探讨灰色GM(1,1)模型在血吸虫病人群感染率预测中的应用。[方法]资料来自于四川省西昌市川兴监测点2000～2005年连续6年血吸虫病监测数据,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型对该资料进行拟合,确定GM(1,1)预测模型,并对今后3年血吸虫病感染率进行预测。[结果]人群感染率预测模型为X(1)(i+1)=-54.4781e-0.37524i+84.4281,连续3年预测值分别为2.61%,1.79%和1.23%。[结论]GM(1,1)模型可以用于血吸虫病感染率的预测,为合理分配卫生资源提供决策依据。
[Objective] To explore the application of gray GM (1,1) model in forecasting the infection rate of schistosomiasis. [Method] The data were obtained from monitoring data of schistosomiasis in Chuanxing monitoring station in Xichang, Sichuan for 2000-2005 for six consecutive years. The gray GM (1,1) model was used to fit the data and the GM (1,1) prediction model , And predict the infection rate of schistosomiasis in the next 3 years. [Results] The prediction model of population infection rate was X (1) (i + 1) = - 54.4781e-0.37524i + 84.4281, and the predicted values for three consecutive years were 2.61%, 1.79% and 1.23% respectively. [Conclusion] The GM (1,1) model can be used to predict the infection rate of schistosomiasis and provide the basis for decision-making on the rational distribution of health resources.