论文部分内容阅读
民航运输中燃油消耗量的精确预测对能源需求的科学规划和决策具有重要参考价值,针对民航燃油消耗量历史数据少的特点,通过灰色系统建模、关联度分析以及残差辨识,建立了民航燃油消耗量的灰色预测模型,以均方差比值和小误差概率两项评级指标,将预测结果与精度检验等级的对比分析表明灰色预测民航燃油消耗量的拟合精度高,预测结果较为可靠。
Precise prediction of fuel consumption in civil aviation transportation has important reference value for scientific planning and decision-making of energy demand. According to the characteristics of civil aviation fuel consumption less historical data, through the gray system modeling, correlation analysis and residual identification, established civil aviation The gray forecasting model of fuel consumption is based on the two indicators of mean deviation ratio and small error probability. The comparative analysis of prediction result and accuracy test grade shows that the fitting precision of gray prediction civil aviation fuel consumption is high, and the prediction result is more reliable.