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用统计模拟的方法对 1 990～ 1 997年全国年度重点危险区与地震的相关性进行了分析 .由于统计模拟的方法有效地处理了地震和危险区的时空不均匀性 ,并且得到经运算 1 0 5次的统计模拟随机预报概率 ,将其与实际预报平均概率比较 ,得到较为客观的结果 .结果表明 :1 1 990～ 1 997年全国年度重点危险区的实际预报平均概率 ,比完全平均随机划定预报区的统计模拟平均随机概率高 0 .0 371 9;2考虑地震活动背景概率时 ,实际预报平均概率比危险区加权重的统计模拟平均概率高 0 .0 2 1 83;3将中国大陆依地震分布不均匀性分为新疆西部地区、西南地区和其它地区 3个区时 ,新疆西部地区的实际预报平均概率大大高出统计模拟平均随机概率 ,其差值为 0 .2 0 962
The statistical simulation method is used to analyze the correlation between the annual critical danger zone of China and the earthquake from 1990 to 1997. Because the statistical simulation method effectively deals with the spatiotemporal nonuniformity of earthquakes and dangerous areas and is obtained by the computation 1 The statistics of 0 5 times simulate the probability of random prediction and compare it with the actual average probability of prediction to get more objective results.The results show that the average probability of actual prediction of the annual critical risk areas from 1990 to 1997 is higher than the average probability of complete randomness Statistical simulation of delineated forecasting area The average random probability is 0. 0 371 9; 2 When considering the background probability of seismic activity, the average probability of actual forecasting is higher than the statistical simulation average probability of dangerous area weighted by 0. 0 2 1 83; When the mainland is divided into three regions of western Xinjiang, southwest China and other regions according to the non-uniform distribution of the earthquake, the average probability of actual forecasting in the western region of Xinjiang is significantly higher than the average probability of statistical simulation with a difference of 0.220662