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本文引入斯托克夫指数构建向量自回归模型,对1979—2010年我国产业结构、就业结构与城镇登记失业率的数据进行实证检验,分析中国产业结构与就业结构互动关系中存在的问题。研究发现,改革开放以来,我国产业结构与就业结构相互牵拉,但产业结构变动没有引起就业总量的变化。短期内,第二和第三产业结构的变动都会导致城镇登记失业率的上升。第二产业中资本对劳动的替代效应大于其创造效应,第三产业对就业的牵引作用大于第二产业对其的抑制作用。由此,本文给出了调整第二产业技术进步路径,优化第三产业结构,消除劳动力市场制度壁垒等对策建议。
This paper introduces Stork’s index construction vector autoregressive model to test the data of China’s industrial structure, employment structure and urban registered unemployment rate from 1979 to 2010, and analyzes the existing problems in the interaction between industrial structure and employment structure in China. The study found that since the reform and opening up, China’s industrial structure and employment structure have pulled each other, but the changes in industrial structure have not caused the change in total employment. In the short term, changes in the secondary and tertiary industries will result in an increase in the registered unemployment rate in cities and towns. The substitution effect of capital on labor in the secondary industry is greater than its creation effect. The tertiary industry’s effect on employment is greater than the secondary industry’s inhibitory effect on it. Therefore, this article gives some suggestions on how to adjust the technical progress of the secondary industry, optimize the tertiary industry structure, and eliminate the system barriers in the labor market.