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沙棘绕实蝇(Rhagoletis batava Hering)是危害沙棘果实的重要害虫。本研究采用Maxent模型,在收集和整理沙棘绕实蝇全球地理分布信息的基础上,筛选出与该虫发生相关的11个关键环境变量,预测了当前及未来气候条件下该虫在全球以及我国的适生区和适生程度。在当前气候条件下,该虫在全球的适生范围主要集中在北温带地区,在我国的适生范围较广且适生程度较高;在2050年的两种气候情景下,沙棘绕实蝇在全球的适生区北界均向北移动,在我国的适生范围均略有扩大且适生区向西南部拓展。建议我国相关部门进一步加强针对沙棘绕实蝇的入侵防控工作。
Rhagoletis batava Hering is an important insect pest of sea buckthorn. In this study, based on the Maxent model, 11 key environmental variables related to the occurrence of the insects were screened and collected based on the global geographical distribution of the seabuckthorn. The current and future climatic conditions of the insects in the world and in China The fit area and the degree of fitness. Under the current climatic conditions, the global adaptive range of the insects mainly lies in the northern temperate zone, and the suitable range and the degree of suitable habitat are wider in China. In both climate scenarios of 2050, In the north of the northern part of the suitable habitat in the world, they both move northward and are slightly expanded in their suitable habitat areas. It is suggested that the relevant departments of our country further strengthen the prevention and control of invasion against seabuckthorn.