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本文根据对我国1950年以来小麦条锈病发病动态和流行因素分析,提出条锈病多年预测依据主要有:(1)小麦品种抗条锈状况及其遗传变异规律,品种布局及其发展趋势;(2)气候条件,特别是3～5月份降雨量多年趋势展望;(3)条锈病各流行区自然生态条件;(4)对条锈病所采取的综合治理措施及其实施状况。分析与以上各项有关的情报资料,试对我国主要冬麦区小麦条锈病提出了多年趋势展望。预计今后五至十年内,小麦条锈病在我国主要冬麦区不会发生全国性的大流行;流行区将主要在甘、陕、川、鄂、豫相毗连的常年越夏和越冬区,流行年发病面积约3000～4000万亩,流行程度一般为轻度至中度发生,局部地
Based on the analysis of the dynamic and epidemic factors of wheat stripe rust in our country from 1950 to 1950, the main basis for the prediction of stripe rust for many years are as follows: (1) The stripe rust resistance status of wheat cultivars and their genetic variation, the variety distribution and their development trend; (2) ) Climatic conditions, especially the trend of 3-May rainfall trend for many years; (3) the natural ecological conditions of endemic areas of stripe rust; (4) the comprehensive measures taken for stripe rust and their implementation status. Analysis of intelligence information related to the above, try to put forward the prospect of wheat stripe rust in the main winter wheat area in our country for many years. It is estimated that in the next five to ten years wheat stripe rust will not cause a national pandemic in the major winter wheat regions of our country. The endemic areas will be endemic in the perennial summer and overwintering areas adjacent to Gan, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Hubei and Henan provinces The annual incidence of about 3000 ~ 4000 mu, the prevalence is generally mild to moderate occurrence, locally