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针对装备平均修复时间总体分布模型具有模糊性和试验具有继承性的特点,应用了贝叶斯理论和模糊数学思想,以研制性试验维修样本为验前信息,通过构建二级模糊综合评判模型获得平均修复时间分布的验后概率,进而确定了平均修复时间所属的总体分布模型.通过工程实例分析,验证了方法的有效性.
According to the fuzziness of the overall distribution model of equipment average repair time and the inheritance of the experiment, Bayesian theory and fuzzy mathematics are applied to develop the experimental test samples for the pre-inspection information, which is obtained by constructing the second-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model The average post-mortem probability distribution of repair time distribution, and then determine the overall distribution model of the average repair time belongs to.Through the engineering example analysis, the effectiveness of the method is verified.