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MC-RCM模型是一种在马斯京根法的基础上引入水位流量曲线的洪水演算方法,为进一步验证MC-RCM模型在实际河段中及不同演算条件下的精确性,分别采用试错法、最小二乘法、马斯京根—康吉法及MC-RCM模型四种演算方法对长江李庄至泸县段的10例天然洪水进行流量演算分析,并引入五种评价指标,比较了MC-RCM模型与其他演算方法在不同演算时段下流量演算精度、演算可靠性、演算洪峰流量精度等方面的优劣。结果表明,MC-RCM模型在流量演算精度、演算可靠性、演算洪峰流量精度上相比其他方法均具有一定优势,且在较长演算时段中优势更为明显。因此,MC-RCM模型作为河道洪水演算的可靠方法,可在水文资料充分的情况下修正或校验马斯京根法的演算成果。
The MC-RCM model is a flood calculation method based on the Muskingum method. In order to further verify the accuracy of the MC-RCM model in actual river sections and under different calculation conditions, trial and error Method, least square method, Muskingum-Kangji method and MC-RCM model were used to calculate the flow of 10 natural floods from Li Zhuang to Luxian section of Changjiang River, and five evaluation indices were introduced to compare MC The advantages and disadvantages of -RCM model and other calculation methods in different calculation period under the flow calculation accuracy, reliability of calculation, calculation of peak flow accuracy. The results show that the MC-RCM model has some advantages over other methods in accuracy of flow calculation, reliability of calculation, and calculation accuracy of peak flow, and the advantages are obvious in the longer calculation period. Therefore, the MC-RCM model can be used as a reliable method for the calculation of river floods. The results of the Muskingum method can be corrected or verified if the hydrological data is sufficient.