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基于省际面板数据的实证模型,本文揭示了中国劳动收入份额在短期经济波动(包括产出波动和价格波动)中的一般特征。研究显示,劳动收入份额在产出波动中具有显著的“逆周期”性,在价格上涨的过程中则呈现出“U型”变化轨迹。在控制了短期经济波动并考虑模型的动态性之后,我们认为20世纪90年代中期以来中国劳动收入份额的下降仅仅是一种短期“逆周期”现象,而并非伴随着长期经济增长的一般趋势。进一步的研究发现,“工资粘性”及中国劳动力市场中的某些特殊因素使劳动报酬不能随着产出增长和价格变化而迅速调整,是短期经济波动能够显著影响劳动收入份额的直接原因。
Based on the empirical model of provincial panel data, this article reveals the general characteristics of China’s labor income share in short-term economic fluctuations (including output volatility and price volatility). Research shows that the share of labor income has a significant “inverse cycle” in output fluctuations and a “U-shaped” trajectory in the process of price increases. After controlling for short-term economic fluctuations and considering the dynamics of the model, we think that the decline in labor’s share of labor income in China since the mid-1990s is only a short-term “counter-cyclical” phenomenon, not accompanied by long-term economic growth trend. Further studies have found that “wage and stickiness” and certain special factors in China’s labor market make it impossible for labor remuneration to adjust rapidly with output growth and price changes, which is the direct reason that short-term economic fluctuations can significantly affect the share of labor income .