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冰川储量的变化对海平面和区域水资源、生态环境以及社会经济等有重要影响,但是对大量冰川的储量变化很难通过实地观测获得。基于天山9条监测冰川储量变化的估算结果,通过统计分析,探讨冰川储量变化和面积变化的相互关系,以期通过测定冰川面积变化来估算冰川储量变化。结果表明:冰川储量变化与面积变化具有线性关系,其决定系数为0.67~0.70。加入其他山区冰川样本以后,决定系数并没有提高。其原因在于,一方面对冰川变化监测和冰川储量估算存在误差;另一方面,不同的冰川区由于冰川的类型、规模及区域气候特征的差异,冰川变化对气候变化响应的敏感程度不同。因此,未来不仅需要更多更准确的冰川储量估算,还需要按冰川形态类型和区域分别研究。
Changes in glacial reserves have important impacts on sea level, regional water resources, ecological environment and socio-economic aspects. However, changes in reserves of a large number of glaciers are difficult to obtain through field observations. Based on the results of 9 monitoring glacier reserve changes in Tianshan Mountains, the relationship between glacial reserve change and area change is discussed through statistical analysis in order to estimate the glacial reserve change by measuring the change of glacier area. The results show that there is a linear relationship between glacial reserve change and area change, and the determination coefficient is 0.67 ~ 0.70. After joining other mountain glacier samples, the coefficient of determination did not increase. The reason is that, on the one hand, there is an error in the monitoring of glacier change and glacial reserve estimation; on the other hand, glacier changes are different in response to climate change due to differences in glacier type, scale and regional climate characteristics. Therefore, not only will more and more glacier reserves be estimated in the future, but also different types of glaciers and regions should be studied separately.