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随着我国服务业逐步超过工业成为第一大产业,国内要求进一步加快服务业发展,强调服务业已成为“支柱产业”的声音日益高涨。然而,这种观点普遍基于传统的产业结构学派观点,在当前全球产业大融合的背景下,存在商榷的空间。美国“再工业化”战略的相关举措表明,工业在国民经济中能发挥出服务业所无法替代的作用。本文通过构建包含工业和服务业的两部门动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,从工业和服务业相互融合的角度剖析产业结构转型对经济的影响。数值模拟结果发现,从经济增长潜力看,随着服务业占GDP比重的上升,其将会降低工业技术创新拉动GDP增长的效果,而服务业技术创新对GDP增长的影响却不会发生多少变化。服务业具备“经济稳定器”的作用,但其技术进步对宏观经济的外部性影响要弱于工业。在未来推进“产业结构迈向中高端”的过程中,应保持工业和服务业的均衡发展态势。
As China’s service industry gradually surpasses industry to become the largest industry, the domestic demand for further accelerating the development of the service industry emphasizes that the service industry has become a “pillar industry” and its voice is on the rise. However, this view is generally based on the viewpoints of the traditional industrial structure schools. Under the current background of global industrial convergence, there is still room for discussion. Relevant measures of the U.S. “re-industrialization” strategy show that industry can play an irreplaceable role in the service industry in the national economy. In this paper, by analyzing the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the two sectors including industry and service, this paper analyzes the economic impact of industrial restructuring on the integration of industry and service. The numerical simulation results show that from the perspective of economic growth potential, as the proportion of service industry to GDP rises, it will reduce the effect of industrial technological innovation on GDP growth. However, the effect of service innovation on GDP growth will not change much . The service industry has the function of “economic stabilizer”, but its technological progress has less impact on the externalities of the macro economy than that of the industry. In the future promotion of “industrial structure towards high-end” process, the balanced development of industry and service industries should be maintained.