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为研究黄河上游贵德站流量变化、周期及主要影响因素,采用小波分析法、相关分析法对44年(1954年-1997年)的流量、太阳黑子及旱涝资料进行多时间尺度相关性分析。研究结果表明:不同频域尺度下流量与太阳黑子、旱涝随时间的变化具有同步性,具有10年左右尺度的流量周期振荡较强,其它尺度周期振荡相对较弱。通过进一步分析年流量模比系数差积曲线和距平累计过程线,得到贵德站流量丰枯变化趋势,并预测今后一段时间内流量将处于偏枯期。太阳黑子数与旱涝程度与年流量在一定时序上具有相关性,且流量变化的主要因素除了太阳黑子数和旱涝程度外,水库的运行也起到关键作用。此成果可为黄河上游的水情变化趋势与水资源利用提供参考依据。
In order to study the changes of flow, period and main influencing factors in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, a multi-time scale correlation analysis was carried out on the flow, sunspots and drought and flood data of 44 years (1954-1997) using wavelet analysis and correlation analysis . The results show that the variation of flux, sunspots and drought / flood over time in different frequency ranges are in synchronicity. The oscillations of flow with 10-year scale are strong and the periodic oscillations of other scales are relatively weak. Through the further analysis of the annual flow modulus ratio coefficient differential product curve and the anomaly cumulative process line, you get the trend of flow and abundance of the Youde station, and it is predicted that the flow will be in the dry season in a period of time in the future. The number of sunspots and the degree of drought and flood are correlated with the annual flow rate at a certain time sequence. Besides the sunspot number and degree of drought and flood, the main factors of the flow rate change also play a key role in the operation of the reservoir. This result can provide a reference for the trend of water regime and the utilization of water resources in the upper reaches of the Yellow River.