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本文应用实物期权理论中的不确定性下的最优投资决策方法,并使用泊松过程描述政策的不确定性。本文把政策因素加入到最优投资决策模型中,建立政策不确定性模型体系,并研究政策不确定性对可再生能源发电企业投资决策的影响。本文通过数学推导证明和数值结果分析,得到政策的不确定性会提高投资临界值,降低可再生能源投资者的信心,导致不仅不能激励投资,反而阻碍投资(因为投资者不能把握政府的政策动态和政策信息)。而确定的激励政策能降低投资临界值,增强可再生能源投资者的信心,促进可再生能源的投资。
This paper applies the optimal investment decision method under the uncertainty of real option theory and uses the Poisson process to describe the policy uncertainty. In this paper, the policy factors into the optimal investment decision-making model, the establishment of a policy uncertainty model system, and study the impact of policy uncertainty on renewable energy power generation business investment decisions. Through mathematical deduction and numerical analysis, the uncertainty of the policy will increase the investment threshold, reduce the confidence of renewable energy investors, resulting in not only can not stimulate investment, but impede investment (because investors can not grasp the government policy trends And policy information). The established incentive policies can reduce the investment threshold, enhance the confidence of renewable energy investors and promote the investment of renewable energy.