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本文通过对特高压线路工程特点的分析,梳理出其线路工程的主要影响因素及构成,构建了工程量影响因素预测指标体系,再选取国内已经运行的五条特高压线路工程数据,通过支持向量机(SVM)的预测模型对特高压线路工程量进行预测分析。结果表明,不同类型的特高压输电线路工程量预测结果的精度存在明显差异,但是整体误差水平控制在一定范围之内;从预测精度上看,支持向量机预测模型适用于特高压输电线路工程量预测研究,以期为工程造价的预判、预控提供可靠依据,为实现工程投资成本合理控制提供技术支撑。
This paper analyzes the characteristics of the UHV line project, combs out the main influencing factors and components of the line project, and builds a prediction index system for the influencing factors of the project volume, and then selects the five UHV line engineering data that have been operated in China, through the support vector machine. The predictive model of (SVM) predicts and analyzes the engineering volume of UHV lines. The results show that the accuracy of the prediction results of different types of UHV transmission lines has obvious differences, but the overall error level is controlled within a certain range; from the perspective of the prediction accuracy, the SVM prediction model is suitable for UHV transmission lines. Predictive research is expected to provide a reliable basis for pre-judgment and pre-control of project cost, and to provide technical support for achieving reasonable control of project investment costs.