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“十二五”期间,四川地区的电网工程项目投资过千亿元,“十三五”期间,电网基础设施建设将面临新的机遇与挑战,在巨大投资精益化管理要求的大环境下,积极探索,应用先进的理论方法优化输变电工程造价控制管理体系,是一项意义重大的理论研究工作。本文在深入识别电网工程造价影响因素的基础上,进一步结合电力数据挖掘技术,构建电网工程造价组合预测模型,并通过“十二五”期间的实际工程数据进行算例分析,结果表明,组合预测模型的平均误差较小,能够有效提高预测精度,为电网工程造价控制提供决策依据。
During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, investment in power grid projects in the Sichuan region exceeded 100 billion yuan. During the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period, the power grid infrastructure construction will face new opportunities and challenges, and it will be required for intensive management of huge investments. In a large environment, it is a significant theoretical research to actively explore and apply advanced theoretical methods to optimize the cost control management system for transmission and distribution projects. Based on the in-depth identification of the influencing factors of power grid project cost, this paper further combines power data mining technology to construct a predictive model of power grid project cost, and analyzes examples through actual engineering data during the “Twelve Five Years” period. The results show that The average error of the combined forecasting model is small, which can effectively improve the forecasting accuracy and provide decision-making basis for the cost control of power grid projects.