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*对比不同时期上市公司的业绩预告可以发现,目前A股公司的盈利增长可能已处于阶段高位,从三季度开始,A股公司的盈利增长可能出现下滑。*对于已经公布三季度业绩预增公告的公司,仍然值得投资者关注。但在A股公司整体盈利增长已呈回落趋势的情况下,建议投资者在试图把握69家业绩预增公司的机会时,有必要保持更加保守的标准和更加挑剔的目光。在选股策略上,建议从原来注重上市公司的成长性,恢复到更加关注公司的投资回报水平和公司的资产质量状况。*预增公告显示,煤炭、基础石化以及采矿等资源性行业的盈利继续得到提升。但这些行业盈利的增长,投资者已普遍有了充分预期。同时在需求增长回落、产能扩张迅速的双重影响下,资源类产品进一步涨价动力已有所不足。其盈利增长以及投资机会,已经相对有限。*在69家业绩预增的个股中,有11家与房地产相关。并且统计显示,在需求持续旺盛以及房地产价格持续上涨的推动下,房地产公司的盈利表现普遍向好。我们认为,真实需求的持续高居不下,使得未来房地产行业所面临的发展潜力仍然明显,房地产市场局部性过热并不影响到房地产行业整体性的发展趋势。*受惠于国内经济的持续快速增长以及中国经济增长模式的转变,零售类公司盈利的增长也较为突出。整体判断,未来一段时期,国内消费需求仍然会保持较快的增长态势。对于零售行业来说,其未来的增长潜力仍然值得关注。
* Compared with the performance forecast of listed companies in different periods, we can find that the profit growth of A-share companies may be already at a stage high. From the third quarter onwards, the profit growth of A-share companies may decline. * For companies that have announced announcements of third-quarter results, investors are still concerned. However, given the declining trend of overall earnings growth of A-share companies, investors are advised to maintain more conservative standards and more discerning eyes when trying to grasp the opportunity of 69 pre-growth companies. In the stock selection strategy, it is recommended from the original focus on the growth of listed companies, restored to pay more attention to the company’s return on investment and the company’s asset quality status. * The pre-announcement has shown that the profitability of resource industries such as coal, basic petrochemicals and mining continue to improve. However, the profit growth of these industries has generally been fully anticipated by investors. At the same time, with the double impact of the drop in demand growth and the rapid expansion of production capacity, the further price hikes of resource products have become insufficient. Its earnings growth and investment opportunities have been relatively limited. * Of the 69 pre-growth stocks, 11 are related to real estate. And statistics show that in the continued strong demand and real estate prices continued to rise driven by the real estate company’s earnings performance generally well. In our view, the real demand continues to stay high, making the real estate industry in the future development potential is still apparent, the local real estate market overheating does not affect the integrity of the real estate industry trends. * Benefiting from the sustained and rapid growth of the domestic economy and the change of the economic growth model in China, the growth of profitability of retail companies is also prominent. Overall judgments, the future period of time, domestic consumer demand will still maintain a rapid growth. For the retail industry, its future growth potential is still worth noting.