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《中国现代化报告2010》显示:如果完全按照国际经验,21世纪中国成为发达国家的概率约为4%。对此,陈剑表示“这4%根本没有什么意义” “如果完全按照历史经验来估算,中国21世纪末晋级发达国家的概率约为4%;如果考虑到人口的因素,中国人口13亿～14亿,发达国家人口10亿,中国的概率可能更小。”1月30日,在“世界现代化400年暨《中国现代化报告2010》专家座谈会”上,中国
According to “China Modernization Report 2010”, if fully based on international experience, the probability of China becoming a developed country in the 21st century will be about 4%. In this regard, Chen Jian said: “This 4% does not make any sense at all.” If China fully estimates historical experience, the probability of China reaching the developed countries in the 21st century will be about 4%. If we take population factors into consideration, the population of China 13 In the “World Modernization 400” and “China Modernization Report 2010 Experts’ Symposium” on January 30, China, with a population of 1 billion and a billion in the developed countries, may be less likely in China.