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基于地震液化侧向变形实测数据,通过数据统计分析了影响液化侧向变形的关键因素,并采用Probit建模方法,初步建立了地震液化侧向变形超过特定阈值的概率模型,并将模型预测结果与两个典型案例的实测数据进行了对比。该预测模型可以考虑震级、震距、场地坡度和液化土层厚度对液化侧向变形发生概率的影响。预测结果与实测数据的对比表明模型能够较好地预测发生大变形的概率,但对于小变形情况,模型预测结果偏保守。
Based on the measured data of lateral deformation of seismic liquefaction, the key factors that affect the lateral deformation of liquefaction are analyzed by means of statistical analysis. Probit modeling is used to establish the probabilistic model of seismic liquefaction lateral deformation exceeding a certain threshold. The model predictions Compared with the measured data of two typical cases. The prediction model can consider the influence of magnitude, seismic distance, site gradient and liquefiable soil layer thickness on the probability of liquefaction lateral deformation. The comparison between the predicted results and the measured data shows that the model can predict the probability of large deformation well, but the prediction of the model is conservative for small deformations.