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Climate change,a global issue exerting heavy influences on the whole world,has brought great pressure to China as well.Low-carbon technology is critical to develop low-carbon economy,and rational planning of low-carbon technology roadmap plays a guiding role in the development of the low-carbon industry.Due to the uncertainty of the conventional low-carbon technology roadmap based set on qualitative analysis and the complexity and time-consuming based set on typical bottom-up models,we present a new method to analyze low-carbon technology roadmap in order to achieve a low carbon scenario for China.Three types of economic and social development-technology combination scenarios are defined in this paper.Based on system dynamics theory,the carbon reduction model is established to simulate the trends of carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity.