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一、预测的指导思想和数学模型赵紫阳总理提出,我国到2000年实现工农业年总产值翻两番,依靠科技进步要占50％以上。机械工业是为国民经济发展提供技术装备,在新技术革命中起主导作用的工业部门,技术进步的贡献应大于这个比例。机械工业部机械科学研究院在预测“七五”期间机械工业技术发展时,将这个比例控制在65％以上。本文将以“走内涵型为主的扩大再生产的路子”为指导思想,对河南机械系统工业1980—2000年技术进步的宏观经济效益作出预测,定量分析河南机械系统工业年产值、年劳动和年资金增长及技术进步速度
I. Guidelines for Prediction and Mathematical Model Premier Zhao Ziyang proposed that by the year 2000, China’s industrial and agricultural output will quadruple its gross output value and that more than 50% of its total will depend on scientific and technological progress. Machinery industry is an industrial sector that provides technical equipment for the development of national economy and plays a leading role in the revolution of new technology. The contribution of technological progress should be greater than this proportion. Machinery Research Institute of Machinery Industry in the forecast “seven five” during the development of machinery industry technology, the proportion of more than 65% control. This article will take “take the connotation of the main way to expand reproduction” as the guiding ideology of Henan machinery system industry from 1980 to 2000 to forecast the macroeconomic benefits of technological progress, quantitative analysis of Henan machinery system industry annual output value, annual labor and years Capital growth and technological progress