论文部分内容阅读
不确定性与风险性影响着找矿勘探工作的各个方面。勘探策略则试图最大限度地减小这种不确定性与风险性,从而改善阻碍找矿成功的不利条件。优选法是在不确定的条件下达到既定目标,提供最合理、有效地开发,使用现有的有限资源途径的方法。“找矿勘探的最优设计策略”一书精辟地介绍了优选法应用于找矿勘探程序设计的基本原理。 制定有效策略的关键在于估计与各种勘探活动相关的不确定性与风险性程度。概率的概念为定量估计不确定性与风险性提供了一个有效途径。这里,概率可分为:凭直觉得出的主观概率,通过对以往经验做正规化评价得出的最频繁概率。找矿勘探成功的概
Uncertainty and risk affect all aspects of prospecting exploration. Exploration strategies seek to minimize this uncertainty and risk, thereby improving the unfavorable conditions that hinder the success of the prospecting. The preferred method is to reach the established goal under uncertain conditions and provide the most reasonable and effective way to develop and use the existing limited resources. The book, “Optimum Design Strategies for Prospecting and Exploration,” provides a brilliant introduction to the rationale that the preferred method is applied to prospecting program design. The key to developing an effective strategy lies in estimating the degree of uncertainty and risk associated with various exploration activities. The concept of probability provides an effective way to quantitatively estimate the uncertainty and risk. Here, the probabilities can be divided into: subjective probabilities obtained by intuition, and the most frequent probabilities obtained by formalizing past experiences. Prospecting for prospecting success