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为了预测日本科技实力的增长趋势,首先应建立关于一个国家的“科技力”的定义,并设计相应的“科技力”指标。一国的科技力是由科技研究能力、科技应用能力、科技贸易能力所组成的综合能力。从反映这三种能力的众多指标中远出:(1) 研究经费、(2) 高技术产业的出口额、(3) 技术贸易额和出口额,分别作为科技研究、应用、贸易能力的代表指标,以构成反映一国科技力的综合指标。而在预测未来各国科技力时,则以科技研究能力代表科技力,即是说,把对科技力的预测简化为对科技研究能力的预测。 按照上述方法计算,1985年主要西方国家的科技力指数为:美国100、日本52.7、联邦德国39.1、法国20.6、英国19.7。主要西方国家和苏联的科技研究能力指数为:美国100、苏联41.1、日本29.7、联邦德国19.0、法国12.3、英国10.4。对2000年主要西方国家和苏联的科技力(科技研究能力)的预测结果是:美国100、日本66.2、苏联58.6、联邦德国33.5、法国15.5、英国11.8。这意味着在今后十几年上述国家(除美国)科技研究能力指数(以美国为100)均有上升,即相对于美国的差距均有缩小,其中尤以日本、苏联、联邦德国的指数上升幅度较大,分别为36.5、17.5、14.5。日本的科技研究能力将超过苏联,从而成为名副其实的世界第二“科技大国”。
In order to predict the trend of the growth of science and technology in Japan, we should first establish a definition of a country’s “scientific and technological strength” and design the corresponding indicator of “science and technology strength.” A country’s science and technology power is composed of science and technology research ability, science and technology application ability, science and technology trade ability composed of comprehensive ability. (1) research funding, (2) exports of high-tech industries, (3) trade in technology and exports, respectively, as a proxy for research, application and trade capacity in science and technology , To form a comprehensive index that reflects a country’s science and technology. In predicting the science and technology of each country in the future, science and technology research capabilities are used to represent science and technology. That is to say, the prediction of science and technology forces is simplified into the prediction of science and technology research capabilities. According to the above method, the major western countries in 1985, science and technology power index: the United States 100, Japan 52.7, the Federal Republic of Germany 39.1, France 20.6, the United Kingdom 19.7. The major Western countries and the Soviet Union’s research capability index for science and technology: the United States 100, the Soviet Union 41.1, Japan 29.7, the Federal Republic of Germany 19.0, France 12.3, the United Kingdom 10.4. The forecast of the scientific and technical strength (ability of scientific and technological research) in major Western countries and the Soviet Union in 2000 is: 100 in the United States, 66.2 in Japan, 58.6 in the Soviet Union, 33.5 in the Federal Republic of Germany, 15.5 in France and 11.8 in the United Kingdom. This means that in the next ten years or more, the index of the R & D capability of the countries in the above countries (except the United States) (at 100 in the United States) has risen, that is, the gap with the United States has narrowed. Especially in Japan, the Soviet Union and the Federal Republic of Germany, the index has risen Larger, respectively, 36.5,17.5,14.5. Japan’s science and technology research capacity will surpass the Soviet Union, thus becoming the veritable “science and technology power” in the world.