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目的初步建立各疫源地动物鼠疫流行预测的模型,针对各疫源地实际情况建立预警指标体系。方法黄鼠疫源地(达乌尔黄鼠疫源地、阿拉善黄鼠疫源地)、布氏田鼠疫源地、长爪沙鼠疫源地利用最优回归子集法进行指标筛选及风险分级,指数平滑法进行风险预测;喜马拉雅旱獭疫源地、青海田鼠疫源地利用加权移动平滑法预测动物鼠疫检菌阳性率。结果达乌尔黄鼠疫源地筛选出鼠密度、鼠体染蚤率、鼠体蚤指数、巢穴蚤染蚤率等四个指标;阿拉善黄鼠疫源地筛选出鼠体染蚤率、鼠体蚤指数、洞干蚤指数、巢穴蚤染蚤率、巢穴蚤指数等五个指标;长爪沙鼠疫源地定边县筛选出鼠密度、体蚤染蚤率、巢穴蚤染蚤率、降水等四个指标,其它疫源地监测指标与鼠疫的发生理论上无显著关系。风险等级分为流行、高风险、不流行三级。预测喜马拉雅旱獭疫源地2014~2015年检菌阳性率为11.35%、11.62%;青海田鼠疫源地2014~2015年检菌阳性率为0.69%、0.65%。选取动物鼠疫流行范围、流行强度、检菌率、血凝阳性检出率和滴度、主要宿主密度、蚤指数6项指标,按疫源地类型划分预警等级。结论黄鼠疫源地、布氏田鼠源地及长爪沙鼠疫源地筛选出更有效的监测指标预测动物鼠疫的流行;针对各疫源地实际情况分为四级预警。
OBJECTIVE: To establish a model for predicting the epidemic of animal plague in all epidemic areas and establish an early warning index system for the actual situation of each epidemic area. Methods The foci of Daphnia magna (the source of Daurian ground squirrel, the origin of Alashan spp.), The field of Brandt’s voles and the germplasm of Meriones unguiculatus were screened and risk stratified using the optimal regression subset method. The index Smoothed method to predict the risk; Himalayan Marmota foci, voles of Qinghai voles to use weighted moving smoothing method to predict the positive rate of animal plague detection. Results Four indexes of rat density, rat flea flea index, rat flea index and flea flea flea fleece rate were screened out from the origin of Daurian ground squirrel. Flea index, cave flea index, flea flea flea rate, nest flea index five indicators; Merionesia epidemic Dingbian County to screen out the mouse density, body flea flea flea flea flea flea flea flea flea rate, precipitation Four indicators, other foci monitoring indicators and the occurrence of plague no significant relationship. Risk level is divided into popular, high-risk, not popular three. The positive rates of detection of Hamiya mandarin foci from 2014 to 2015 were 11.35% and 11.62%, respectively. The positive rates of bacteria from 2014 to 2015 in Qingzhen field were 0.69% and 0.65% respectively. The prevalence range, epidemic intensity, prevalence, prevalence, positive detection rate and titer of blood coagulation, main host density and flea index were selected for the epidemic range, epidemic precaution grade. Conclusion The screening of more effective monitoring indicators for the prevalence of plague in O. gonorrhoeae, Brandt’s voles and Mongolian gerbils is divided into four levels of early warning according to the actual situation of each foci.