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在考虑水资源脆弱性影响因素随机性基础上,结合地区风险暴露水平,采用广义最小二乘法建立灾害损失模型,以期望灾害损失占GDP比重作为衡量水资源脆弱性的重要指标,依据我国31个省市自治区的多年平均降水量,采用Z指数法评价其旱涝风险等级,估计了短期内期望灾害损失占GDP比重,并对此进行核密度估计以确定水资源脆弱性等级划分阈值,据此对各地区水资源脆弱性进行等级划分,结合旱涝灾害风险等级划分和水资源脆弱性等级划分,对各地区的脆弱性与旱涝风险进行配对研究。结果表明,我国区域间降水量分布与水资源脆弱性分布并不完全相同,水资源脆弱性更多地与经济发展水平相关,经济发达并不意味着水资源高度脆弱。
Based on the randomness of water resources vulnerability factors and the regional risk exposure level, the generalized least squares method is used to establish the disaster loss model. The expected loss ratio of GDP to GDP is an important index to measure the vulnerability of water resources. Based on 31 Provinces and autonomous regions for many years the average precipitation, the use of Z index method to assess the level of drought and flood risk, estimated short-term expected disaster losses as a share of GDP, and nuclear density estimation to determine the level of water resources vulnerability threshold, accordingly Based on the classification of the vulnerability of water resources in different regions, the paper studies the vulnerability of each region and the risk of droughts and floods according to the division of drought hazard level and the level of water resources vulnerability. The results show that the distribution of precipitation in our country is not exactly the same as the distribution of water resources vulnerability. The vulnerability of water resources is more related to the level of economic development. The economic development does not mean that the water resources are highly vulnerable.