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自1997年下半年东南亚爆发金融危机以来,我国政府多次庄严承诺人民币不贬值。人们关注的一个焦点是,周边国家货币的大幅度贬值对其出口是否产生强劲的促进作用,相应地对中国的出口是否会产生巨大的抑制作用,从而使中国因采取负责任的人民币不贬值政策而蒙受过大的代价?随着日元的不断贬值,这个问题显得格外突出。笔者认为,研究汇率波动的传递性问题,可以部分地为深入研究上述问题提供理论分析工具。就一般理论意义而言,我国学术
Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia in the second half of 1997, the Chinese government has solemnly promised that the renminbi will not devalue. One of the focuses of attention is whether the drastic devaluation of the neighboring countries’ currencies will have a strong stimulative effect on their exports and accordingly will have a huge inhibitory effect on China’s exports so that China will adopt a responsible policy of devaluing the renminbi And suffer too much price? With the continuous devaluation of the yen, this issue is particularly prominent. The author believes that the study of the transitivity of exchange rate fluctuations can provide some theoretical analysis tools for the further study of these problems. In terms of general theoretical significance, our country is academic