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目的评估温州市台风灾害引起的肠道传染病疫情风险,探索优化的层次分析在突发事件公共卫生风险评估中的应用。方法通过专家会商梳理并建立台风灾后肠道传染病疫情风险指标体系,用层次分析法判断指标之间的相对重要性并计算指标权重。随机选择温州市的3个县,收集或调查各指标值,结合权重计算风险分值和校正风险值。结果共建立了4个一级指标和24个二级指标,二级指标层权重以优势菌株、卫生应急能力和应急避难场所保障最高,分别为0.177 2、0.111 3和0.111 3;3个县(市、区)平均校正风险值和最大风险值分别为:苍南县(0.377 2,0.580 1);乐清市(0.399 4,0.466 9);温州市鹿城区(0.213 4,0.398 6)。6种肠道传染病疫情平均校正风险和最大风险值从高到低依次为:其他感染性腹泻(0.466 5,0.579 6);霍乱(0.443 3,0.537 9);细菌性痢疾(0.392 9,0.5367);伤寒和副伤寒(0.282 0,0.442 9);甲型肝炎(0.247 8,0.440 4);戊型肝炎(0.147 3,0.353 4)。结论本研究为台风灾害引起肠道传染病疫情风险评估建立了初步的评估指标体系,并评估出台风灾害对温州市不同地区肠道传染病疫情造成的风险程度和风险因素,能较好地为当地卫生行政管理部门提供决策依据。
Objective To evaluate the risk of intestinal infectious diseases caused by typhoon in Wenzhou and to explore the application of optimized analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in public health risk assessment of emergencies. Methods Through expert consultation, the risk index system of epidemic situation of intestinal infectious diseases after typhoon disaster was established, and the relative importance of indicators was evaluated by AHP and the weight of indicators was calculated. Three counties in Wenzhou City were selected at random to collect or investigate each index value and calculate the risk score and the corrected risk value with the weight. Results A total of 4 first-level indicators and 24 second-level indicators were established. The weights of the second-level indicator layers were the dominant strains with the highest levels of health emergency response capacity and emergency shelter coverage of 0.177, 2.0.111 3 and 0.111 3 respectively. Three counties Municipalities and districts), the average corrected risk value and the maximum risk value were respectively Cangnan County (0.377 2, 0.580 1), Yueqing City (0.399 4, 0.466 9), and Lucheng District Wenzhou City (0.213 4,0.398 6). The average corrected risk and the maximum risk of the six kinds of intestinal infectious diseases were as follows: other infectious diarrhea (0.466 5,0.579 6), cholera (0.443 3,0.537 9), bacillary dysentery (0.392 9,0.5367 ); Typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever (0.282 0,0.442 9); hepatitis A (0.247 8,0.440 4); hepatitis E (0.147 3,0.353 4). Conclusion This study established a preliminary evaluation index system for the assessment of the risk of intestinal infectious diseases caused by typhoon disasters and evaluated the risk level and risk factors caused by typhoon disasters on the epidemic situation of intestinal infectious diseases in different areas of Wenzhou City. Local health administrative departments to provide decision-making basis.