哈尔滨郊区人为鼠疫疫源地鼠类种群动态分析

• 作 者: 李仲来 杨岩 陈曙光
• 机 构: 北京师范大学数学系,黑龙江省卫生防疫站
• 出 处: 兽类学报
• 发表日期: 1999年01期
• 关键词: 人为鼠疫疫源地 达乌尔黄鼠密度 大仓鼠 褐家鼠 种群动态

根据黑龙江省哈尔滨市郊区人为鼠疫疫源地１９５２～１９９６年达乌尔黄鼠密度监测资料，建立了黄鼠密度的自回归模型Ｄｔ＝０１３７４＋１１３０２Ｄｔ－１－０４７５４Ｄｔ－２＋０８０３３Ｄｔ－３－０４６８０Ｄｔ－４，对１９９７～２０００年的密度进行了预测。１９５２～１９８０年，人工捕黄鼠率极为显著地影响黄鼠密度（Ｐ＜０００１）。在该地区，１９８２～１９９６年共捕啮齿动物６种，其中黄鼠和大仓鼠为野外优势种，褐家鼠为室内优势种，其余为常见种。大仓鼠、黑线仓鼠、黑线姬鼠均与夜行鼠总捕获率正相关（Ｐ＜００１），逐步回归模型为总捕获率＝０５２１９＋１１７３３大仓鼠＋１０３１２黑线仓鼠＋１１２７３小家鼠＋０９２４２褐家鼠（Ｐ＜００００１）。黄鼠密度与捕获率不相关（Ｐ＞０１０）。

According to the monitoring data of Daurian ground squirrel from 1952 to 1996 in the outskirts of Harbin City, Heilongjiang Province, an autoregressive model was established for the density of the rat, Dt = 01374 + 11302Dt-1-04754Dt-2 + 08033Dt -3-04680Dt-4, the density of 1997 ~ 2000 was predicted. From 1952 to 1980, the artificial catching of squirrels had a very significant effect on the density of squirrels (P <0001). In this area, 6 species of rodents were co-located between 1982 and 1996, of which the gopher and hamster were the dominant species in the wild, the rodent was the predominant species in the family, and the rest were common species. Large hamsters, black hamsters and Apodemus agrarius were positively correlated with the total catching rate of nocturnal cats (P <001), and the stepwise regression model was the total catching rate = 05219 + 11733 hamsters + 10312  1273 House mouse + 09242 Rattus norvegicus (P <00001). There was no correlation between the rat density and the capture rate (P> 010).