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[背景]由于人类持久性有机污染物(POPs)暴露主要是缘于摄入受污染的食物,监管机构针对人们关注的食物颁布饮食消费建议,阐述摄入量的安全水平,特别是鱼类。[目的]评估鱼类消费建议对于降低婴儿和儿童POPs暴露的有效性。[方法]采用时间-变量机制模型CoZMoMAN,根据产妇指南的不同场景,按照假设恒定的以及实际上随时间变化的化学物质排放,评估和比较产前、产后和儿童期的多氯联苯同系物PCB-153暴露。场景因依从性的长度(1年与5年)、鱼类替代的程度(全部与一半)以及更换膳食(未受污染的农产品与牛肉)等条件而各不相同。评估一系列理论上化学品潜在暴露的减少,以探讨指南的有效性如何随着化学物的分类和降解能力而发生变化。[结果]在假设存在建议依从性的实际时间段的前提下,暂时取消或减少产妇食用鱼类,在很大的程度上对于降低产前和产后在人类体内清除半衰期长的物质暴露是无效的,尤其是在环境排放降低的时期。以牛肉取代鱼类实际上可能导致更高的某些类别环境污染物暴露。另一方面,对于减少清除半衰期短于依从性长度的物质暴露,消费建议可能非常有效。[结论]上述模型评估提示,对于在人体内清除半衰期长的化合物,鱼类消费建议不太可能有效地减少产前、产后以及童年期的暴露。
[Background] Since exposure of human POPs is mainly due to the ingestion of contaminated food, regulators have issued dietary consumption recommendations that focus on people’s concerns, setting out the safety level of intake, especially for fish. [Purpose] To assess the effectiveness of fish consumption advice in reducing POPs exposure in infants and children. [Method] The CoZMoMAN, a time-variable mechanism model, was used to assess and compare PCB continents in prenatal, postpartum and childhood according to different scenarios of maternal guidelines, based on assumed constant and virtually time-varying chemical emissions PCB-153 exposed. The scene varies depending on the length of compliance (1 year and 5 years), the degree of fish substitution (all and half), and the conditions of changing meals (unpolluted produce and beef). Evaluate a series of theoretical reductions in the potential exposure to chemicals to see how the guidelines’ effectiveness can change as the chemicals are classified and degraded. [Results] The temporary abolition or reduction of maternal consumption of fish, assuming the existence of a practical time frame for recommended compliance, is largely ineffective in reducing substance exposure to long-term elimination half-lives in humans at prenatal and postnatal periods , Especially during times of reduced environmental emissions. Replacing fish with beef may actually lead to higher exposures to some types of environmental pollutants. On the other hand, consumer advice can be very effective in reducing material exposure with a shorter clearance half-life than compliance length. [Conclusion] These model assessments suggest that fish consumption advice is unlikely to reduce prenatal, postpartum, and childhood exposures to compounds with long half-life in humans.