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“One belt， one road” and Asia In- frastructure Investment Bank opened a new era of financial diplomacy. What does this mean to China？
Having USD 4 trillion foreign exchange reserve， known as the biggest surplus country and the biggest US debt buyer for many years， China has gained momentum in economy through gold export. However， the export mode can no longer exist because of low return on investment and external environment change. While facing the “bottle-neck period”， “one belt， one road” and Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank which give priority to infrastructure may open a new era of overseas investment for China.
By 2014， China’s overseas assets is USD 6.3 trillion， and net asset is USD 1.8 trillion， which made it become world’s second largest countries in overseas net asset after Japan. However， China’s huge overseas net asset always comes along with “minus yield”. The main reason for that is the structural mismatching between external assets and liability， which means over 60% of our external asset， is low-yield foreign reserve held by central bank， and almost 60% of external liability is high-cost foreign direct investment. The difference between the two made us pay investment income while having huge net assets.
Based on other Asian countries’ data， it is not dif- ficult to find that both Japan and South Korea have the same problem. Their foreign reserve rise first and fall later while foreign investment return fall first and rise later.” From this perspective， having nearly USD 4 trillion foreign reserve and USD 1.8 trillion net foreign assets， China should be qualified for making such a structural adjustment.
Everything is ready except the “east wind”. “One belt， one road” and Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank initiated by China exactly is the “east wind”.
In terms of economy， the construction of relevant project can promote the growth of investment and economy directly or indirectly. It is estimated that the population along the belt and road is about 4.4 billion， and its economic aggregate is about USD 21 trillion， which respectively accounts for 63% and 29% of the world’s total. Currently， investment for proposed and constructing projects of “one belt， one road” amounts to 1.04 trillion yuan. Considering the construction cycle for infrastructure generally needs 2-4 years， the investment in 2015 for “one belt， one road” in China may be 300-400 billion yuan； among the investments for infrastructure construction of overseas project （USD 52.4 billion in total， about USD 17 billion each year）， suppose one third is in China， then the investment promoted by “one belt， one road” will be about 400 billion yuan in 2015.
Having USD 4 trillion foreign exchange reserve， known as the biggest surplus country and the biggest US debt buyer for many years， China has gained momentum in economy through gold export. However， the export mode can no longer exist because of low return on investment and external environment change. While facing the “bottle-neck period”， “one belt， one road” and Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank which give priority to infrastructure may open a new era of overseas investment for China.
By 2014， China’s overseas assets is USD 6.3 trillion， and net asset is USD 1.8 trillion， which made it become world’s second largest countries in overseas net asset after Japan. However， China’s huge overseas net asset always comes along with “minus yield”. The main reason for that is the structural mismatching between external assets and liability， which means over 60% of our external asset， is low-yield foreign reserve held by central bank， and almost 60% of external liability is high-cost foreign direct investment. The difference between the two made us pay investment income while having huge net assets.
Based on other Asian countries’ data， it is not dif- ficult to find that both Japan and South Korea have the same problem. Their foreign reserve rise first and fall later while foreign investment return fall first and rise later.” From this perspective， having nearly USD 4 trillion foreign reserve and USD 1.8 trillion net foreign assets， China should be qualified for making such a structural adjustment.
Everything is ready except the “east wind”. “One belt， one road” and Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank initiated by China exactly is the “east wind”.
In terms of economy， the construction of relevant project can promote the growth of investment and economy directly or indirectly. It is estimated that the population along the belt and road is about 4.4 billion， and its economic aggregate is about USD 21 trillion， which respectively accounts for 63% and 29% of the world’s total. Currently， investment for proposed and constructing projects of “one belt， one road” amounts to 1.04 trillion yuan. Considering the construction cycle for infrastructure generally needs 2-4 years， the investment in 2015 for “one belt， one road” in China may be 300-400 billion yuan； among the investments for infrastructure construction of overseas project （USD 52.4 billion in total， about USD 17 billion each year）， suppose one third is in China， then the investment promoted by “one belt， one road” will be about 400 billion yuan in 2015.